Unofficial translation
Footnote. Abolished by the Order of the Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated May 20, 2023 No. 161 (effective from 01.07.2023).In accordance with subparagraph 26-5) of article 7 of the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated April 6, 2016 “On employment,” I HEREBY ORDER:
1. To approve the attached Rules for formation of a national system for labor resources forecasting and the use of its results.
2. The Department of employment and development of labor market of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in the manner prescribed by law, to ensure:
1) state registration of this order in the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
2) within ten calendar days from the date of registration of this order, its sending in the Kazakh and Russian languages to the Republican state enterprise on the basis of the right of economic management “Republican Legal Information Center” for official publication and inclusion in the Reference Control Bank of regulatory legal acts of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
3) placement of this order on the Internet resource of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan after its official publication;
4) within ten working days after the state registration of this order in the Ministry of Justice of the Republic of Kazakhstan, submission of information to the Department of Legal Services of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the implementation of measures provided for in subparagraphs 1), 2) and 3) of this paragraph.
3. Vice-Minister of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan N.N. Mukusheva shall be authorized to oversee the execution of this order.
4. This order shall come into force ten calendar days after the day of its first official publication.
| Minister of labor and social | |
| protection of population of the | |
| Republic of Kazakhstan | B. Saparbayev |
AGREED
Agriculture Ministry of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Ministry of education and science of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Health Ministry of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Ministry of industry and
infrastructure development of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
National Bank of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Ministry of National Economy of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Ministry of Internal Affairs of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Ministry of digital development,
defense and aerospace industry of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
AGREED
Energy Ministry of the
Republic of Kazakhstan
| Approved by the Order of the Minister of labor and social protection of the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated March 29, 2019 № 154 |
Rules for formation of a national system of labor resources
forecasting and the use of its results
Chapter 1. General provisions
1. These Rules for formation of a national system of labor resources forecasting and the use of its results (hereinafter - the Rules) shall determine the procedure for formation of a national system of labor resources forecasting and the use of its results.
2. Basic concepts used in these Rules shall be:
1) the state Internet resource “Labor Exchange” - an electronic information resource containing a single information base of the labor market, operating on the Internet, which is supported by a center for development of labor resources in order to provide government measures to promote employment;
2) information-analytical system "National system of labor resources forecasting " - an automated system designed for collecting and analytical processing of information, provided by state bodies, to form a national system of labor resources forecasting;
3) a national system for labor resources forecasting - a set of applied methods and approaches to determine the forecast demand and supply of manpower.
3. A national system of labor resources forecasting shall be formed by the authorized body for employment issues and local executive bodies of regions, cities of republican significance, the capital, on the basis of the data submitted by state bodies specified in the appendixes to these Rules.
4. The functioning and operational management of the information-analytical system "National system of labor resources forecasting" (hereinafter referred to as the System) shall be ensured by the joint-stock company “Center for Development of Labor Resources”.
5. The state bodies, specified in Appendixes 1 and 2 to these Rules shall annually submit the following data to the authorized body for employment issues by April 15 by uploading it to the System:
data for the previous 5 years in accordance with Appendix 1 to these Rules;
forecast data in accordance with Appendix 2 to these Rules.
When making changes to the forecast socio-economic indicators by the interested state bodies, the updated information in accordance with Appendix 2 to these Rules shall be submitted within 5 working days from the date of the changes introduced.
Chapter 2. Procedure for formation of a national system of labor recourses forecasting
6. To form a national system of labor resources forecasting, the information-analytical system “National system of labor resources forecasting” shall be used.
7. The national system of labor resources forecasting shall be formed using the System for:
1) a short-term period, forecasting period - 1 year;
2) a medium-term period, forecasting period - 5 years;
3) a long-term period, forecasting period – until 2050.
8. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a short-term shall be formed quarterly and cover the period of the next four quarters, excluding the quarter when it was formed.
9. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a medium term shall be formed on an annual basis and cover the period of the next five years, including the year in which it is formed.
10. The national system of labor recourses forecasting for a long-term shall be formed every three years and cover the period until 2050, including the year in which it is formed.
11. The forecast of labor resources to be placed in the system:
for a short-term period - not later than the 20th day of each month following the reporting quarter;
for a medium term - not later than May 15 of the year following the reporting period;
for a long term - every three years not later than May 15 of the year following the reporting period.
12. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a short term shall be formed on the basis of information from employers provided in accordance with subparagraphs 1) and 2) of paragraph 2 of Article 28 of the Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated April 6, 2016 "On Employment", through integration with the state Internet resource “Labor Exchange”, with subsequent analysis and processing using the following equation:
where, Xt - the forecast employment in the period t;
c, aὶ, bὶ - model parameters;
p, d, q - orders of the autoregressive part, the taking of differences, part of the moving average;
△ d - operator of the difference in the time series of order d (sequential taking of d times of differences of the first order - first from the time series, then from the obtained differences of the first order, then from the second order, etc.);
Ɛt - white noise.
13. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a medium term to determine the forecast supply of manpower shall be formed on the basis of the following information:
1) number of people, including those that are part of the manpower;
2) birth rate of the population;
3) mortality for the main reasons;
4) population migration by directions;
5) employed population, by region-industry.
14. The data referred to in paragraph 13 of these Rules shall be provided by the authorized body in the field of state statistics to the authorized body on employment issues on an annual basis by region, type of area, one-year age and sex, for at least five years preceding the year of formation of the forecast for a medium-term period, not later than April 15 of the current year.
15. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a medium term to determine the forecast demand for manpower shall be formed on the basis of information provided by state bodies in the manner determined by paragraph 5 of these Rules.
16. To determine the forecast demand for manpower for a medium term, an equation is used in which the demand for manpower is formed in accordance with employment factors by industry:
where
The coefficients shall be recalculated annually, while according to the results of the reassessment, a set of factors changes depending on the stability of their relationship with the prevailing employment indicators for new periods.
17. The national system of labor resources forecasting for a long term to determine the forecast demand for manpower shall be formed using the information specified in paragraph 13 of these Rules and the following forecast indicators:
gross regional product (GRP);
volume of industrial production;
agricultural output;
retail turnover;
volume of paid services to the population;
volume and direction of investment;
change in labor productivity;
unemployment rate.
Calculations of forecast demand for labor resources for a long-term period shall be made using the equation specified in paragraph 16 of these Rules.
Chapter 3. Procedure for using the results of a national system of labor recourses forecasting
18. The results of the national system of labor resources forecasting for a short-term shall be used by government bodies to:
1) organize short-term training and retraining of the unemployed population and job seekers;
2) inform the general public about the situation on the labor market and professions in demand;
19. The results of the national system for labor resources forecasting for a medium and long term shall be used by government bodies when:
1) forming the state educational order for the training of specialists of technical and vocational, as well as higher and postgraduate education;
2) developing the strategic plans of the central state bodies maintained at the expense of the republican budget;
3) forecasting the socio-economic development of the region, cities of republican significance, the capital;
4) developing and implementing budgetary policies, youth, migration, as well as employment policies.
20. The results of the formation of the national system of labor recourses forecasting shall be posted on the state Internet resource “Labor Exchange” in the Kazakh and Russian languages.
| Appendix 1 to the Rules for formation of a national system of labor resources forecasting and the use of its results |
The list of indicators necessary for calculating the demographic forecast
№ | Indicators | Executive officer | Previous 5 years | ||||
20___ | 20___ | 20___ | 20___ | 20___ | |||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
1 | The number of preschool children by age and region, people | MES | |||||
2 | The number of students in secondary education organizations by grades and ages, people | MES | |||||
3 | The number of students in organizations of post-secondary (technical and vocational) education in the context of specialties and ages, people | MES | |||||
4 | The number of students in higher education organizations in the context of specialties, courses, and ages, people | MES | |||||
5 | The number of persons sentenced to deprivation of liberty by regions and terms of imprisonment, person | MIA | |||||
| Appendix 2 to the Rules for formation of a national system of labor resources forecasting and the use of its results |
The list of indicators necessary for calculating the forecast of labor resources
№ | Indicators | Executive officer | Current year (assessment) | Forecast years | Justification of forecast indicators (main projects and measures) | ||||
20___ (1st forecast year) | 20___ (2nd forecast year) | 20___ (3rd forecast year) | 20___ (4th forecast year) | 20___ (5th forecast year) | |||||
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
General development indicators | |||||||||
1 | GDP Volume Index, % to the previous year | MNE | |||||||
GRP Volume Index, % to the previous year | LEB | ||||||||
2 |
The average annual urban population, million people | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
3 | Real cash income index of the population,% to the previous year | LEB | |||||||
GVA Volume Index of branches of the economy,% to the previous year | |||||||||
4 |
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
5 |
Manufacturing industry | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
6 |
Mining and quarrying | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
7 | Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
8 |
Water supply; | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
9 | Construction | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
10 |
Wholesale and retail trade; | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
11 |
Transport and storage | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
12 |
Accommodation and food services | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
13 |
Information and Communication | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
14 |
Financial and insurance activities | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
15 | Real estate operations | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
16 | Professional, scientific and technical activities | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
17 | Administrative and support activities | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
18 |
Public Administration and Defense; | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
19 | Education | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
20 | Health and social services | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
21 | Arts, entertainment and recreation | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
22 | Other types of services | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Volume Index of investments in fixed assets by industry, % to the previous year | |||||||||
23 | Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
24 |
Wholesale and retail trade; | MNE | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries | |||||||||
25 | Volume Index of gross crop production, % to the previous year | AM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
26 | Volume Index of gross livestock production, % to the previous year | AM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
27 | Gross harvest of cereals (including rice) and legumes (in weight after refinement), mln tons | AM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Mining and quarrying | |||||||||
28 |
Coal and lignite production (except for coal concentrate), mln tons | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
29 | Oil production, including gas condensate, mln tons | EM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Manufacturing industry | |||||||||
30 | Volume Index of oil products, % to the previous year | EM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
31 | Volume Index of iron and steel products,% to the previous year | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
32 | Volume Index of production of basic precious and non-ferrous metals | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning | |||||||||
33 | Electricity production, billion kWh | EM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Transport and storage | |||||||||
34 |
Cargo turnover of all types of transport, billion ton-km | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
35 |
Railway freight turnover, billion ton-km | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
36 | Cargo turnover of automobile transport, billion ton-km | MIID | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Financial activities | |||||||||
37 | The volume of the loan portfolio of banks, billion tenge | NB | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Professional, scientific and technical activities | |||||||||
38 | Domestic R&D expenditures, billion tenge | MES | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Public administration and defense; compulsory social security | |||||||||
39 | The costs of the local budget for public order, security, legal, judicial, criminal-executive activity, billion tenge | LEB | |||||||
40 | The number of persons who completed serving a sentence of imprisonment (for the forecast year), people | MIA | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Education | |||||||||
41 | The costs of the local budget for education, billion tenge | LEB | |||||||
Health and social services | |||||||||
42 |
General incidence of circulatory system diseases, absolute numbers | HM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
43 | Total incidence of digestive diseases, absolute numbers | HM | |||||||
LEB | |||||||||
Note:
Abbreviations:
AM - Agriculture Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
MES - Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
HM - Health Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
MIID - Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
LEB - Local executive bodies of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
NB - National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
MNE - Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
EM - Energy Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
MIA - Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
GVA - Gross Value Added;
GRP - Gross Regional Product;
VI - Volume Index;
R&D - Research and development work.
